Analysis of the black industry chain: stable supply and demand, waiting for demand to pick up.

We have sorted out the supply and demand situation of the entire black industry chain. In the later stage, the real economy will continue to recover upward, and the demand for steel in the peak season will be guaranteed. The steel supply side is relatively stable, and there will be a marginal improvement drive after demand rebounds. With the recovery of raw material supply and production capacity, the gap between the supply and demand of raw materials will be reduced compared with the first half of the year.

Terminal demand: The real economy is still in the upward repair stage, and steel demand in peak seasons will be guaranteed. The demand on the infrastructure side is relatively certain; the main indicators on the real estate side continue to improve, and the pressure of rushing to work in the peak season is strong.

Steel supply: stable domestic operations, moderate recovery overseas. In the later stage, there are still new domestic blast furnaces that will be put into production before the end of the year, and the daily average domestic pig iron output may reach a new high. The main uncertainty lies in the implementation of Tangshan's production restriction. Thread profit is not good, but steel mills currently have better expectations for peak season demand, and it is expected that the thread output will be stable. Hot coil supply and demand and profit are in good condition, and output is expected to continue to rise. The continued recovery of overseas pig iron production will improve the total demand for coking coal and the structure of iron ore demand.

Iron ore supply: Imports remained high in July, and the supply was loose. In July, my country’s iron ore imports increased significantly month-on-month and year-on-year. It is expected that subsequent shipments to Australia will be affected by maintenance, shipments to Brazil will continue to increase steadily, and the proportion of shipments to China will be adjusted as the overseas economy recovers. Imports of non-mainstream mines have increased significantly, and the increase is still dominated by the three countries of India, Ukraine, and Russia. Imports of Canadian and Chilean mines have also begun to increase. It is expected that the subsequent supply of iron ore in my country will show a loose pattern driven by non-mainstream mines.